- Think of a crypto exchange
- Wonder if it is operating at fractional reserve
- It is
Well, yes 50% of the time
My binance account is now not working, I have my log in info and password, but they won’t let me access my funds unless I send them biometric info for their database… how much more proof do you need that it’s an exit scam in progress. Strange timing too that now that they are taking credit cards. Buttons on their site are reportedly not working and they do noting to fix it. Tether exchanges are all connected, and the news about QuadrigaCX lends proof and now the whole corruption is getting aired. QuadrigaCX was selling user data for id theft and that connects to Bincance’s hack of user data that they are using PR to make it seem like nothing happened. Misuse of KYC just to sell private data. Some are calling for CZ investigations. BTT scam just days ago. The airdrop later by Justin admits they were caught in the wrong doing. Classic playbook of an exit scam includes pumping prices on the way out.
and it looks to me like we will return to the 4$ price point; I still not sure why it was there 2 weeks ago if anyone has any thoeries
I heard on day one that the cost to mine one grin was 5 euros. My guess is that cheap electric and better mining performance has lowered the price. Also trading bots are at work on both sides of the order books for grin, you can watch them in real time, widening the spreads. Bots flash orders, off and on, to figure out who the human traders are.
Tradeogre has stalled 4-5 times in the last 24 hours, each time lasting only seconds, but when it comes back online, it logs off all the bots, and only a few hundred users are left. When the bots return within an hour, then there are 2200+ or more users online and you can see the “crawling” start up on the order books.
The dead QuadrigaCX guy has been selling his Litecoins everywhere and the exchanges are stressed out. Heads up, choppy waters!
Lack of communication design is the only thing hurting Grin right now… easy and fun to solve that. Do you guys have a budget for that?
1 Like
Your like the 3rd person who thinks Im a dev; why?
And the answer is probably no for a bit.
Very interesting. Suspicous minds want to know. Do you have a source for this juicy bit of gossip?
It would be a boon to have you helping out with communicating Grin to regular people. It’s a task over in Grin/design on Gitter that has your name on it. But with a little help from your friends. 
What do you think? Ready to write for Grin?
@monkyyy What’s up Monkyyyman? Have a good day, all.
being told I have to handle exchange bullshit, no matter how much I’m willing to tolerate it to play a game I adore when I’m in the mood; when I’m not in the mood and its to just make my money safe; is a bad day.
1 Like
also I’m going to be working on my price model today, I’m going to be asking inane and insane and potentially infamous questions all day long if someone wants to see my process, or be able to ask questions about 5 years of coin market data while I’m abusing with it; I could use 2nd opinions.
ok according to my model if you ignore every risk, every time preference, and all these things you really shouldnt ignore and have magic knowledge that grin will be the 4th most important coin in 5 years; it should be priced
0.081049034757384 btc, or ~240 usd
BUY BUY BUY; (or you know make estimates of the risk of ownership, risk that doesn’t happen, and time preference and muliply then deside to if you should buy)
1 Like
How did you get this. The simplest models, comparing it to other top ten coins, don’t put it that high in my estimates.
the big bit is that I did the raw math of grin and btc inflation and there only exists 8 grin for each btc in the year 2024, which is far less then I would have thought.
but I’m vaguely following my rant form a while ago of how I would calculate the price; its just not done yet
edit// is there a way to pull the raw math out of an excel cell into a large formula? that sounds like something that should exist
1 Like
Absolutely, when time allows, I’d like to.
I am bullish on the idea that crypto mkt cap – currently not even worth any of the top 10 nasdaq cap – is bound to cover a good fraction of global money at M0. That’s an order of magnitude from now…
So, based on my long-term position on the tech, my only question is whether Grin is going to be a top currency within that world and, provided the ideas it embraces, what it brings tech-wise, the community and talents, it certainly has that potential.
Nothing being carved in stone, there are very promising businesses, pioneering ideas, from the early days of internet that are no more and/or taken over by others selling it more efficiently… Time will tell but right now Grin days look very bright.
1 Like
Yeah, cf, 0xb100d interested to know how you got to this valuation? Can you share any more elements of your model? There should be a way to do what you are looking to do in xl; can you be more specific?
do you want the raw file, I could use someone checking the math every once in a while; but it sounds sane it me, again its without any risk factors and its assuming magic knowledge and an “end of history” sort of thing; I’m not making a more complicated inflation model then “the coin ratio at this year is X to Y”, so while the real price at 2024 would factor in say 5 years of inflation between 2024-2029 I’m not, by doing a fancy endless calculus thing.
Right; if you don’t mind sharing your model fwd a copy to firs.argentum@protonmail.com…not a spreadsheet jockey but reasonably familiar … sounds like a reasonable way to get back of envelope est. but there’s more factors than the relative coin-emssion inflation at play - obviously - but how to estimate them?