I once bought 12,500 GRINS with 5 BTCs
It’s been 4 months since 4 hard-forks ended.
Annual inflation ratio is at 42%.
We are in the early years of a crypto currency that can be on the market for many years.
I think it is necessary not to speak early. (Even though it’s been 2.5 years.)
But I still feel like something will happen by the end of this year. Because if something does not happen and if Grin enters the bear period at these prices, the network may not be able to maintain its power and may disappear and suffer many 51% attacks too.
In my personal opinion, either patience will win or the project will be completely destroyed. There is no middle point.
moved topic to #rants-flames
How could the grin project become completely destroyed? I try to grasp what you mean. Maybe we can try to compile a definition when grin is completely destroyed.
- If Harry Potter himself appears and says grin completely sucks and even stinks, I would agree grin is destroyed completely, but only in metaphorical sense.
- If we see prices around 15 satoshi per grin, 95% hash-rate loss over for 6 month, and a couple of 4 weeks deep reorgs, I would agree, grin is in trouble, but not destroyed. Grin might recover.
- If all devs would leave, forum closes, no code git-hub contribution for 1 year, I would agree, grin is in trouble, but not destroyed. Grin might recover.
- If the chance is below 50%, someone who is interested in fair decentralised internet money projects, finds grin within 30 attempts, Grin has a privacy problem (of the other kind). If those circumstances last more than 7 years, that’s probably as fair as a premine. But does not destroy Grin.
- If nodes can not sync grin, I would consider grin as destroyed. But it depends on the reason some how.
- I think inflation bug or broken cryptography could destroy grin almost completely.
- maybe someone could prove that money needs to be unfair to function, AND more unfair money is better money. If the prove is valid, that might make grins aims invalid.
- I think a soft-fork somehow could destroy Grin completely. (If i don’t like it, but 51% do)
For me I’m still wondering if grin is just one small step or a giant leap. One aspect is, how to deal with large reorgs. Cry and accept or Soft-fork to checkpoints? Is the mining algorithm good for decades and century’s? Will the price per hash for CT32 deflate more than sha256 from now?
I believe that Grin is what Bitcoin with CT would look like in 2021. We don’t know yet whether that’s just another intermediate version of CT (like the original CT) and in 2023 something new will be discovered or we have reached a state where we won’t find really good improvements on it. If we do find improvements that are not applicable to Grin, then Grin will be an intermediate step. Likewise, if someone figures out an even nicer way to build a blockchain that’s not based on CT, the path of blockchains might go in a totally different direction than Grin. The likelihood of finding such solutions is what makes all of it unclear.
Reorgs are a problem, much more so in Grin than in Bitcoin. It might even be possible to induce a fork between archive and non-archive nodes by reorging past the horizon and placing a temporary invalid bulletproof or something else - neither of the two forks will be able to move your money, they could only undo the transactions as with a regular reorg so it’s not really that bad.
One of the things that worries me is that since the reward is constant, the security of a block can be seen as the energy invested for
60*price. This means that 10 confirmations at $1 price is ~$600 of security. If Grin were to stay at $1, you’d have ~$86400 PoW security per day. If it’s $10, you have $864000 etc. The price will need to reach a reasonable value to keep the security big enough and this will take a long time. This however assumes that the attacker has access to the energy equivalent of the $600 security power. If ASICs are dominant and hard to get, it probably helps a lot. I hope someone corrects me if I’m talking nonsense.
Grin currently has total market value of $30 million.
If we enter a Bear season before this increases to at least $300 million, the project will lose its safety.
Because even the strongest altcoins lose an average of %2000 during the bear season. There are projects that lost %3000-%4000 or even %5000 times their value.
Optimistically, considering that Grin has lost 2000% in value from $300 million to $15 million, the project will seriously lose network strength and be vulnerable to 51% attacks.
Note that while Ethereum Classic had a market cap of $300 million, it suffered 51% hack attacks.
Therefore, a project worth 15-20 million dollars may disappear.
Now let’s forget all that. Let’s say Grin enters bear season with $100 million. The situation will be more catastrophic.
So let’s be objective.
Also, Grin suffered 51% attack attack 1 time.
During bear season, 51% attack attacks increase even more. Let’s consider that too.
Now let’s consider this. If Grin suffers a long-term 51% attack, the blockchain history will not be traceable, as it has a hidden network. Therefore, the extent of the damage cannot be known. In such a situation, nobody wants to use Grin. So the project can be destroyed very easily.
Also, I want to out a point. I’m a huge Grin defender and I would never want Grin to disappear. But I am also objective person. That’s why I think Grin needs to be seriously get valued by the end of this year in order to survive. I hope this happens.
Maybe after the Non-fungible Token craze cools off a bit, people start looking for the opposite and find that fungibility is actually good to have.
In the west, I believe that people are thinking with an investor mindset, which has taken the world by storm. People are thinking in terms of what assets are safe due to inflation. (In the US, we have a disastrously high price now on the most basics of things, and unless you buy from a super center like walmart and target where everything is made in China, everything is extremely expensive now.)
We are heading toward another recession. It’s very hard to explain to people to start using GRIN now. Normal people who I talk to want to buy precious metals and cryptocoins that have properties like gold to hedge themselves against inflation.
I believe that the general public 1. feels like they are punished for saving their fiat. 2. feels that speculation is the only thing rewarded anymore
This is all to say that I do business every day which could be improved if GRIN was used. I truly believe in GRIN’s future.
Not only the West. It is exactly the same in the East. People want to benefit from buying a coin. Very few people want to buy, because it is fair towards others. Why should they? There is nothing wrong with that. Currently, there is very little benefit for people in owning Grin. The only benefits at the moment are more decentralization and privacy than most others, a very small full node that can run natively on a phone and the nice feeling, that no single entity can easily mess up the entire ecosystem. That’s about it.
The downsides are, that the price has only depreciated for a long time (but it looks like a reversal is more and more likely), that there are very few things that you can do with it, very few exchanges and not a very user friendly ecosystem of tools and information.
However, I think that people will increasingly will start to look for the values that Grin can provide, because they will need them, so I am optimistic about future prices. I don’t want to predict prices, but GRINBTC gets flatter on the log chart and GRINUSDT has started to climb above the moving average for the first time this year. I may be wrong, but I think that this is close to the bottom. Prices and community excitement are at all-time lows or close to it. It needs to go up from here, or it does never.
This is only the left side of the chart. Half a smile. I think it is just not yet Grin’s part of the cycle, but people will realize that Grin’s infinitely growing supply is still more scarce than most of the ICO tokens with supplies in the billions, while almost all of them will break their promises. It takes only one drastic loss when the bubble bursts to realize that these tokens have not been created for their benefit.
But the world needs crypto and I think it will naturally gravitate towards the projects that are beneficial for many people, not just for a minority. People are only interested in what benefits them - and they should! But only very few people are able yet to differentiate between realistic crypto promises and promises that inevitably will be broken. It needs to be learned the hard way with skin in the game and hurt feelings. In the meantime, the best thing that Grin can do is focussing on what is beneficial for people.
I see Grin when I watch this video:
Really thoughtful, well-balanced answer. All of the fundamentals are with grin. Scalability, additional privacy on baselayer, and perpetual network security through linear emission.
I’m really hoping we can improve on the usability, access front via wallet addresses. I look forward to seeing the People’s council makes strides towards this after the division of funds
I used to have same feeling when I bought GRIN at $3, I thought it was dip but now deeeper. I’m still DCA some for now just because i’m afford to lose. Just stay patient to see how GRIN would be in next 2-3 years.
Afaik only one exchange lists Grin nowadays. If they disappeared ( which happened during the bear market with small exchanges ) Grin would be considered dead. There won’t be any incentive for mining it anymore.
You guys are amazing，I’ve read for a long time, and I don’t quite understand some opinions about technology, but I know grin is worth having.
@minexpert I try to point out, what I “see”. Not saying what you “see” is wrong.
For me grin is still something like an elephant and I am one of the blind men.
I think the market-cap is quite misleading. My assumption: Only small part of minted grin sees the exchanges. You probably can not buy significant part of grin supply for $30 million. And you probably could not sell significant part of grin supply for $30 million. You probably can not build more POW than the current chain has for $30 million. For me I don’t know, if there (still) are powerful grin supporters. There might be some. Why should someone who could, pump grin now?
It seems that this is one of the problems grin could suffer. But in my point of view a factor of 20 in daily POW doesn’t solve that problem. On the contrary, if grin is not well enough designed and tweaked to work as sound money, it should not waste more power than needed to find out where the flaws are. Or is there certain Limit for a phase transition where the physics change?
I think every grin user should know about that. And we should discus, how to deal with that issue. We need a solution how a contract about a grin payment could handle the Problem, where the risk of loosing grin by a consensus inconsistency, moves from the Alice to Bob.
We should discuss if in general the non achieving nodes should have the last word.