How exterme have historical lessons about privacy been?
Humanity relearns lessons all the time and the 4th ammedement was referring to sonething using legal words that came about form countless events in history, I know the current situation with an disgusting ad and data based market of the internet isnt unique there must be historical parallels as there always is, but the question is how did humanity learn this lesson in the past, could be important one for this space; is open source software, ad blocking, and sane pay with money services going to grow enough that the ugly market collaspes semi controlled without a disaster. Or is it going to get worse and worse until the dam breaks and suddenly a massive flow turns the tiny water wheels of the sane economy to fast and they break for a bit?
I was thinking about this the other day, but I think you are onto something here. The good thing is that the miners have to take a risk in holding this over the long term, so they have to speculate. It isn’t simply just a cash balance swap for tokens.
I do believe we’ve reached the bottom. I was wrong. I thought Grin price would touch under two. However, other external factors have come into play, namely the reversal of the bear market. Grin appears to be designed around miner interest: 1) ASIC friendly and GPU farm friendly 2) complete privacy for countries that tax mining as both income and capital gains to shift money between mining and trading parts of a business without lodging a tax event 3) emission rate with a built in stability of price for long term planning of mining facility budgets, and so on. I expect Grin to ramp to 3-4$ in the next week or two. I think your time has come. I wouldn’t buy large Grin now though, as the market’s so small you’ll shift the price badly even with a few thousand. I would probably rent hashpower at Nicehash and mine to a Grin wallet on an exchange to “buy in” now most effectively. I am saying I believe this is the entry point for you.
I expect this is natural “fragmentation.” Coins are minted in solid blocks of 60 and necessarily get crumbled into smaller pieces as they are exchanged repeatedly. Small transactions from miners and other whales with large coin blocks will accelerate this fragmentation, while large transactions from wallets with lots of small UTXO’s will aggregate them and reduce the fragmentation. So it’s hard to separate what’s actually going on without some much more specific data. Is the current fragmentation rate fast or slow? Don’t really know… maybe someone with an applied math background can develop a stochastic model for UTXO fragmentation…
It was a very large drop 10k ish over a day when the baseline was 55k or something like that. So I think something changed in the ecosystem not random movements.
I don’t have a … Picture? Scenario? … In my head as a parallel but double digit movement downward in something that usually goes up says significant to me
It’s really hard to tell without more data… maybe an exchange moved a bunch of Grin to their cold storage. I would assume their hot wallet had lots of small UTXO’s resulting from retail trader deposits and withdrawals. If they then moved all that to a cold wallet in one big transaction, it would flood the stats with low UTXO size but it would be a one-time event…
Interesting to see the inverse correlation taking place between BTC and Grin. Regardless I think Grin could have a strong bull run once BTC goes parabolic. Approaching some important resistance with BTC, if it breaks a parabolic run seems possible.
This is a common effect when BTC goes on a bull run. People dump their alts to ride the Bitcoin bull, but order is usually restored after the initial run-up. If alts and Bitcoin move together, that’s outside money coming in instead of existing crypto shifting around.
