Fun statistics on user growth as indicator for demand

In this post I want to do some fun, on the top of my head “statistics” on the supply and demand for Grin. Do not put to much value on this analysis, but perhaps it can be informative.

We are currently just past Grins 4th birthday:birthday: We have around 25% inflation or a stock to flow of 4.
Ignoring the influence of external factors like the Bitcoin price, stock market, general market sentiment etc., one would expect that for the price to reach the/a bottom you need a balance between demand and supply. In this case I want to use user growth as an indicator for growth in demand. If I put that in a formulate we get something like:

(Supply - Loss)/stock -Loss = Demand

The number of new user on the forum for Grin in the past year is around 25% compared to the existing user base. I think we can assume a loss rate of coins of around 2% (most coins are lost by forgetting passwords and losing mnemonics, not by sending to the wrong address).
So we have an approximately:

25% - 2% ≈ 25% (Approximately in balance)

I do not expect Grin’s price to explode, but if the user growth is any indication for real growth in demand, we might have reached a first balance point between demand and supply. Meaning we might have hit the bottom. More importantly, a 25% growth in users might be a indication of genuine interest in Grin as project based on its intrinsic value. Especially since these are people joining in a bear market! That is something worth celebrating if you ask me :tada:

Now hold your :horse: and do not FOMO in. This is a very rough analysis, but it might very well be an indication that the current lows we have seen might have been the bottom or at least close to it. If I look into my :fortune_cookie: :mage:, I do think there is a good chance Grin might after rising dump again to similar values and stay relatively stable for many more years. But still if the user growth in the forum is any indication, I think we are doing quite well as a project.