What I always find surprising is that most people ignore growth in demand (adoption) when considering the relative supply. As long as growth exceeds the relative supply, one would expect a stable or upwards price trend:
It is a bit similar with those saying “O no, Grin has an infinite supply” yet they completely ignore the loss rate which, although not that important right now, will become a limiting factor ones the total supply increases.
The amount of available Grin will fix itself ones:
lossRate * totallSupplly = supplyRate
When talking about price you would expect price to stabilize or go up when:
(lossRate +userGrowth) totallSupplly = supplyRate*
Where loss rate and user growth would be expressed as a fraction, e.g. 0.02 loss rate (2%), 0.20 use growth (20%). The loss rate is not much compared to the relative supply/inflation right now of 20%, but the growth more or less equals the relative supply of 20%, which would mean there is not real inflation due to the supply. I estimate we are already at a point in time when growth in users compensates for the current relative supply.We will probably be influenced though by the rest of the market, namely BTC price, since interest in crypto including Grin (new adoption) gets boosted during bull-runs, but get suppressed during bear markets.