I have a fun price prediction for 2030. Doge did around 7500x in six years from May 2015 to May 2021. If grin did the same, adjusting for dollar inflation, the price of grin would be around $675 with a marketcap of $213B. With the right things in place, why not?
DOGE minted 20 years of emission at 1st year, then it was stable against BTC for 7 years, same scenario can be with Grin for sure, 10% inflation is near
P.S. Check monkey’s finger @ 2024
Inflation debate is moldered when you say Grin first 4 year emission is identical as Bitcoin.
And daily emission in USD Terms/ Or whatever unit you measure up, Grin inflation rate has no meaning.
What I always find surprising is that most people ignore growth in demand (adoption) when considering the relative supply. As long as growth exceeds the relative supply, one would expect a stable or upwards price trend:
It is a bit similar with those saying “O no, Grin has an infinite supply” yet they completely ignore the loss rate which, although not that important right now, will become a limiting factor ones the total supply increases.
The amount of available Grin will fix itself ones:
lossRate * totallSupplly = supplyRate
When talking about price you would expect price to stabilize or go up when:
(lossRate +userGrowth) totallSupplly = supplyRate*
Where loss rate and user growth would be expressed as a fraction, e.g. 0.02 loss rate (2%), 0.20 use growth (20%). The loss rate is not much compared to the relative supply/inflation right now of 20%, but the growth more or less equals the relative supply of 20%, which would mean there is not real inflation due to the supply. I estimate we are already at a point in time when growth in users compensates for the current relative supply.We will probably be influenced though by the rest of the market, namely BTC price, since interest in crypto including Grin (new adoption) gets boosted during bull-runs, but get suppressed during bear markets.
Looking into the short-term price shifts (upwards ) and the missing boost after the sec approval for the whole crypto space, I expect Grin consolidation. Even iPollo had a 2-day price increase for G1 mini ($399) when the price started to rise up. Apperantly they expect not much price increase and fall back to $299. Short-term analysis from a different view
I expect Grin to be relatively stable compared to BTC (stable sat price). Perhaps a bit more up when BTC rises and again a bit more down when BTC falls. Would be great for Grin to decouple at some point from the rest of the market (perhaps become stable coin like), but for now that is wishfull thinking.
I need to say, my first reaction to grin emmission concept was: ‘yay, it’s going to zero!’. Then I spent a long time thinking about linear distribution. People see everything through the lens of Bitcoin, so it may not be easy to understand. When the demand rise (and it is expected to rise exponentially, like for other new technologies), linear increase in supply is not able to cause ‘going to zero’ as long as Grin has some utility in real world.