Roughly speaking, someone who doesn’t understand my position for “LN + GRIN is amazing in 7 years” need to make a price point in the far future, then a model that does 1-(chance_end_user loses wallet * chance_end_user_gets_money_stolen * chance_different_mw_coin_wins * risk_and_time_preference… etc) then exponent it at least to the 5th power and then muliply
That is not going to be a pretty number, 20% to the 5th is 0.00032
24 days ago I said “two weeks of .00028 flatness then look to to catch a falling knife”
To translate that to normie
We had .00028 flatness and I was happy that the market seemed stable, if the market suddenly halved I would have bought, instead the market doubled; a 4x price difference from where I said to buy if any normies where confused.
BitForex has currently a weird competition running for Beam and Grin where users can win free tokens. Maybe it has something to do with it. Both Beam and Grin saw significant gains in the last few days. But almost any privacy coins are doing pretty well currently.
I think it’s clearly FOMO at the moment. The current rally will be cooled down by sheer coin emission rate.
My guess: We will be back in the .00035 range in 2-3 weeks. Steady decline.
shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiet,
aligns with my experience of:
“yes i bought in time, oh shit i should sell, fuck why didnt i sell some ill buy some to make up, am i
winning?lets check forums,” + ???, profit.
Is this the blow off top ? Could be, grin is literally 2x or 3x leverage bitcoin contracts. If btc moves 5 percent. It’s 15 percent for grin. But it’s also applicable in the opposite direction.
Grin and btc looking really strong though, for now. These impulsive moves into tight consolidation just screams for another leg up.
I dumped all my BEAM at 0.00012 a few weeks ago, I was glad at first because it continued to dump another 50%, but now it’s already back at almost 0.00010 - it is indeed impressive.
BEAM is not bad, I just think it’s not open enough and the governance model is a little weird. It has a nice wallet and everything, but crypto needs to be more open and decentralized also in terms of development community.
It’s definitely worth $5. My target price for GRIN is $125 by Dec 31, 2020.
My pseudoscience:
-Market cap of Monero is 25x GRIN right now.
-GRIN is far superior to Monero w/similar supply.
-Low on coinmarketcap rn but will creep up quickly.
-GRIN has low supply right now,
-market cap is puny compared to other coins,
-hype level is HUGE
-community funding model > ICO and will inevitably result in moon.
-Where are the big dumpers? Don’t see any.