Sure. Imagine if I can control the bet size, and can sell at the end of the time horizon, and I encounter 20 such pump scenarios. Then I can make money by investing the same amount in each, for example, $1 in each.
Ending funds after each of the 20 outcomes:
Total money in was $20. Total money out was 8 + 13.2 + 3.5 = $24.70. Net gain of 23.5%.
The reason for this is because
The geometric mean is required when you have a sequence of returns, not a single time step. For the above calculations, ARITHMETIC MEAN IS CORRECT AND I AM WRONG. Chronos just made money off of me. 
Although my example scenario is wrong, I will still defend the idea that
In the example of 4x up vs. 4x down, I am assuming Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) for the price process. If 4x up has the same odds as 4x down in the same timeframe, that leads to an expected rate of return (mu) of 0. It is still valid to use the geometric mean of the upside and downside rates of return to derive mu under the assumption of GBM.
The scenario I wrote up has a 3-part distribution which is nothing like GBM, and it is not a series, just simple outcomes. Do that math the regular way. Yes you can make a profit.
But everyone should still think in terms of ratios for the upside vs downside. Even odds of a 4x gain and a 4x loss results in an expectation of no long-term price movement.
ugh… people talking about math in an extreme market
Your based line ability to accurately communicate probability, even to your conscious mind is dog shit, add in public school pushing linear thought very very hard leaving stats to be an afterthought taught in collage and probably taught poorly, its hot garbage 99/100.
I’m going to suggest long long before you use tim’s math you play this http://acritch.com/credence-game/ or something to get you to understand the S curve on a deep level, the difference between 90% and 95% credence is extremely drastic in how the game theory plays out, yet the way your mind treats those is basically nonexistence.
Learn fuzzy logic and get in touch with your sub-couscous before pulling numbers out of it and doing hard math on it into thinking your being smart.
Yes, that’s what I meant by the unknown time span. In the real world of trading, there’s no such thing as a single time step. 
Good on you to admit error; that’s rare for internet conversations.
Credence training is a very interesting concept. I’m not sure it would make much of a difference, for that vast majority of humanity who prefers a positive experience over accuracy.
In theory it would be profitable, but I think you will be searching a long time before you find a security with price movements that adhere to this very simple set of possible outcomes. It’s stating the obvious of course but that’s problem with many models – they are not sufficiently nuanced to capture the potential real world events that can completely alter the conditions /assumptions in short order. For example, this set of outcomes makes no allowance for the fact that the price movement of most securities can “gap” up or down on the back of new information – or sometimes for no obvious reason at all – or maybe even just a “fat finger”. In short, it’s not a realistic scenario. If you do find something that adheres to the example above, please do share on this thread! 
Weird. The price of grin is not obeying the law of gravity, at the moment.
I think that it’s better to look at usd pair charts for now
Lots of wicks to the upside… could be looking good. Gaps like that can mean strong buying pressure as the asks get ripped off the book.
This is a price point in btc we havnt seen in 4 days, bear market over /s
Give it more time
btc dom dropped 2.5%; shitcoin crash seems to be canceled
Shitcoin crash already went further than I thought it would…
Could this be the bottom ?
This price point in btc was set on the 11th, meaning we have been in effect been flat for 8 days, and like the last time we were flat in btc for a week, I’m looking for longer then a week.
Now grin/beam has broken away from 4 to dare I say 5.5 so there is a new piece of evidence that grin is healthy. But that’s one more for the pile.
A new unscathed hand could catch the falling knife and have it work for them, it does eventually hit a floor, but it’s only been flat for a week.
But like last time btc surged, it’s not really strong evidence for health when it goes flat with btc a week when btc grew.
It is probably preferable for Grin to track the price of BTC than the majority of the myriad other 4629 coins extant cf. coingecko. Moreover, its market cap has increased in relative terms having now moved to rank #143 – this seems to augur well as it suggests more demand/resources moving to Grin at the expense of some other coins which are ultimately going to be competing for the same pool of fiat money and users, and that is notwithstanding inflation in supply – I think this may be the highest up the valuation table it has been since its introduction.
If you look at the Grin price chart on its own merits vs. the USD over the last 60 days, there seems to be support around $2.45 where it now sits, and if it breaks through this level it could rise to around $2.80 again where there was another previous level of support cf. chart below.
Move over grin, there is “A rare opportunity to invest in Kraken” wow much lambo
https://bnktothefuture.com/pitches/kraken/landing
ceo circles, random logos, legalese small print, over use of js, random big numbers.
Did anyone get bingo?
Grin’s doing great now! Quite well suddenly. How fun. It looks like we’re heading the $3
hmmm this price point was on the 7th, so 13 days.
tim I think I need some pessimism if you got any left.
Not really. altpump on the way as BTC consolidates. I liked those wicks this past week, like I said.
Preferred shares, meaning you don’t get a return until Kraken is acquired or holds an IPO, w/o paying out any dividends. Minimum buy-in at $1000. Highly illiquid, highly speculative.
I dumped Kraken hard after their multi-week outage during the 2017 boom, a completely unacceptable event that highlighted their TRASH BACKEND. As a programmer myself, I have a very low tolerance for such incompetence.
For US exchanges, Coinbase is worse than traditional banks, horrible horrible company, nonstarter as far as I’m concerned, absolutely abusive fees and user experience.
Gemini has been my preferred choice for the Majors, and they are growing their offering.
Now that Goldman has bought into Circle, they are rewriting the Poloniex matching engine. I used to trash Polo just like Kraken but their new system should be pro.
So where does that leave Kraken in terms of market? They’re not the most consumer-focused (Coinbase). They’re not the best for institutions (Gemini, Circle OTC). And they don’t / won’t have the best backend technology. So… good luck Kraken. If you’re really still top-5, I don’t think it lasts.
