As of writing, price is roughly $0.94, which can be taken as C/S where C is market capitalization and S is supply. Currently this ratio is roughly
23,498,337/24,792,600 ≈ 0.94.
Let’s consider the price based on a projected market cap of $1 Billion (Roughly Monero’s market cap). This is roughly a factor of 42x the current market price. At current supply, this would bring the price up at a factor of 42x (roughly $40 unit price).
Of course, we’re not going to see a 42x growth over night. However, if we were to project this market cap figure out a certain distance (D) into the future, we come up with a price less than $40.
It’s clear that if D=42, we maintain the same price of $0.94 at the projected $1 Billion market cap level. However, in this example D is a measure of time from Grin’s inception (288 days as of this post). This puts our projected $1 Billion market cap epoch at
42*288 days from now, 12096 days or roughly 33 years.
This seems like an improbable timeframe for a $1 Billion market cap valuation. Especially when we observe that other currencies achieve such valuations in much shorter timeframes. For example, Monero is a little over 5 years old.
Consider the same timeframe of Monero. Monero is 2,021 days old. That gives us 1,733 days from now for Grin to be the same age:
D = (days + age)/age = (1733 + 288)/288 = 7.0173611111 Future Price = (C*42)/(S*D) = C/S * 42/D = 0.94 * 42/7.0173611111 = 5.6260465116 (Note: C/S is current price)
We see that after 1,733 days from now we can measure price to be roughly $5.63 at a $1 Billion market cap value. We’re looking at a roughly 499% ROI in todays prices.
Hope this was interesting for you all. Please correct my math if I made any mistakes. I created a Desmos chart for these calculations for more perspective: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/7tb3stjxzy
: include a variable for valuation: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/ewhlwgnk65