Hello mining community! I’ve been wanting to calculate … err … guesstimate … my return on mining, if I mine and hold for the next 5 years. Ofc, I do not own a crystal-ball just yet, so a lot of assumptions went into this. I am posting this here, to get feedback from the community (did I miscalculate something?) or get advice on a better way to guesstimate!
My conclusion so far, is that any money I put into mining year-1, will roughly double within 5 years. Not too exciting, but not too bad either! I’ve tweaked the numbers a little to get some nice round numbers (like assuming 86,400 GPUs will be mining). Perhaps the most controversial assumption I’m making is, I’m assuming grin will be as successful as Monero (no more or less) after 5 years. So I’m using Monero’s current marketcap, as an estimate to grin’s m-cap in 2024! I feel this is fair enough since both grin and Monero compete in a similar niche, and Monero is fairly successful as it is (usually top-10 coin)
Let me know what you think folks!
PS: I’m a nice guy, so don’t throw rotten tomatoes if you don’t like the below
Thanks for your response! But if there’s 10X the GPUs, doesn’t this break all the maths in this thread! Meaning I’d be losing money mining and holding, and that I’d be better off waiting any buying instead?
Again I’m looking to get an accurate model (as can be!), so any improvement to my numbers is appreciated
I get that in normal markets that price is the best predictor of future price save a very small few experts who really really know what they are talking about; this aint normal markets. Shorting has steep counter party risk, the market growing pains involve triple digit growth and double digit falls in the course of months if not weeks and its extremely chaotic.
We are in a low period now, and I don’t think its going to be another xmr, its either not scalible enough and it is rather unimportant like the other anon coins or its scales and makes itself vastly more important. Taking an average or a medium between two extremes like that doesn’t work well; the coin market is very geometric with btc domence getting back to 50% recently; and quick check says that 3 coins are 70% of the market; its going down as we add interesting coins like xrp and eth but thats going to be a thing for a while.
I would name a percentage of the total coin cap, and project it on a long term total coin cap projection thats not paying attention to the shitcoin bubbles extending further back then 5 years then multiply.
For some fucking reason itoa is a bigger market cap then xmr and its frequently close, I would take that as a major sign that xmr failed, its just that people don’t realize it yet as the base line is the waves of shit.
Here are my two cents with regards to guesstimateification.
Funny thing, I also used 80,000 GPUs in my initial estimate, however once I saw that one single guy on the forums had 2000 GPUs ready to go, I revised it….
-Number of grins earned per day, will go down. Meaning if you start at mining 1 grin on launch day, this number will go down.
-If/when 4 GB mining is possible, earnings will go even lower.
-If we see another bullrun, prices will be higher than 5.54$. Yes, Grin is supposed to be cash, but the market is insane….
Personally, I will wait until after launch day to buy new GPUs, if the hashrate is too high, I’ll just mine with what I have today, and buy Grins instead.
And hodl to 2021.
My guess is 10,000 cards maximum at the initial stage. If to compare with the Beam - for it are suitable machines for Ethereum and Zcash, which are currently MUCH (huge farms), some of which, probably, turned their power to a new coin.
The second danger is that someone will create a miner with a very high degree of production and will use it alone. If mining at the initial stage is not profitable, then it will not be profitable later. Firms will start buying equipment in huge quantities as Grin gains popularity. Also, in connection with the promotion, capitalization will grow, yes. But the number of coins in the first time will grow very significantly. Therefore, the increase in the number of coins will compensate for the growth rate. Therefore, we should not expect a strong change in the course.
Sorry for my google translate.The growth rate should be expected only in half a year - a year when the stuffing of new coins will no longer be large compared to the ones already issued. The overall growth of the cryptocurrency market can play a role, but then you can earn on any of them. in a year or two the price will be above $ 5 - this is 100%
On the beam, the power increased almost 2 times per day. At 100-150 k GPU. Who do you think possesses such power? In China alone, there are a lot of Ethereum farms. They simply turned them to try their luck. Either the developers obviously cheated and left themselves a much more efficient miner.
It’s true most of the beam hash power is centralized in two Chinese pools, apparently one pool has more than 50%. There is also a strong connection between beam and the spoondolies asic manufacturer, though they deny building secret ASICS, though we know they have inside information on BEAM. Will be interesting to study retrospectively.
