Taleb comments on BTC update

So Talebs complains today are just fatigue with Bitcoin or things taken out of proportion to create FUD.
Basically he is saying Bitcoin in its current state is not perfect, which he already knew in 2018. We all know Bitcoin is not perfect, but so are all the alternatives. Grin is just one example of an attempt to improve on Bitcoin as digital cash, which I think it is doing fairly well since the following are improved:

  • Minimalism/elegance in code
  • Scalability
  • Privacy
  • Long term security through supply of 1 Grin/s
  • Fairer distribution through a linear supply of 1 Grin/s
  • Low energy consumption PoW algorithm
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He’s right. And he argued his position.

It is more surprising not what Taleb said, but how bitcoin lovers react to criticism. By insulting Taleb, they will not return his interest, much less force him to buy bitcoin again.

On the contrary, they make you even more doubtful about bitcoin…

Bitcoin lovers have formed a distorted ideology. They consider all people who are against Bitcoin to be idiots. But what if the opposite is true? From the point of view of psychology, if bitcoin lovers understand that the catastrophe of their “darling” is inevitable, they can massively start to drown the industry.

Too many people on social media are going all-in on Bitcoin. Bitcoin has been around for ages. The rates are too high at these price ranges.

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Well that is always one of the ‘funny’ things about Bitcoin, for many Bitcoin is something like a religion, especialy to Bitcoin maximalist. If there is critisism agains Bitcion they take it like a personal insult. I love what Bitcoin has acchieved but I really see Bitcoin as only the beginning of the revolution, not the end.

By far, bitcoin gave life to everything (in the context of the industry). And bitcoin will always be the first. The coin that started the revolution.

What worries me is that Bitcoin maximalists have lost touch with reality. Once upon a time, this is what made them come here. It is now lost. A simple example: if I see a spoon that is more convenient for me to consume food, I will use it instead of the old one. I will have no arguments in favor of the old one, other than attachment.

In my reflections, I proceed from practical point of view. There is no compromise in this fight (Grin vs Bitcoin).

But when a person chooses an old spoon instead of a new one because of maximalist, it scares and puzzles me. But, I find a subtext here… If for, say, 8 years I told my family, friends, acquaintances that bitcoin is the future, but suddenly something would appear that casts doubt on 8 years of my “propaganda”, it would put me at a crossroads… Where is the choice: either continue to believe in bitcoin or admit that, most likely, I was wrong.

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Hard choice to make. I think it is always best to think why you fell in love with BItcoin. I for one loved Bitcoin for its potential to innovate, which I see back in Grin. I see Bitcoin as successful as digital store of value, less so as digital cash. It does not mean I sell all my Bitcoin but it does mean I am more exited about Grin since it is more innovative tackling some of the key issues I and many others have with Bitcoin.

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The main argument is about volatility and it seems right. It’s very difficult to set the price of goods in BTC.

Another argument is about privacy and is clearly true.

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I completely agree @Roelsmajor that buying goods with bitcoin is a risk. I bought a laptop a few months ago worth about $ 1000 with btc, bearing in mind that for a year the price fluctuations were within the expected range. Exponential price growth, however, is prohibitive for purchases or transfers at this time. From an investment point of view it is the ultimate currency. We don’t have to go far, just check the btc price two years ago.

@Anynomous Edward Snowden in one of his last interviews referred extensively to cryptocurrencies debunking the anonymity of bitcoin and stressed that BTC developers should pay much more attention to privacy and anonymity. “Private by default” does not apply to btc, nevertheless there are ways to anonymize it. He also referred to the cryptocurrency exchange companies which have gained very great financial power, but also personal information of thousands of people. He then spoke about the privacy coins (not by name, in the past he has mentioned Monero, Zcash) which provide security and anonymity at a very high level. Finally, he said that governments are following, figuratively and literally cryptocurrencies and their operation expressing the belief that in the near future there will be a government digital currency that will be much easier to obtain and its use will be much more accessible to a beginner, but triptych of anonymity, privacy, decentralization will not apply under any circumstances.

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I am doing Bitcoin blockchain forensics myself. There is not hiding on the Bitcoin blockchain (connections, IP addresses, etc. can all be passed by, even coinjoins are trivially broken with Sudoku). Hence my conclusion is that Bitcoin is highly unsuitable if you want privacy. As a store of value Bitcoin works reasonably well, if you are able to wait with selling. That is also one reason I never advise people to have all their holdings in Bitcoin. Also Bitcoin should be used standard with tor or with a VPN to hide your IP. I fully agree with the arguments from Taleb, I only reach a different conclusion:

  • Bitcoin works as store of value as long as you do not put all your holdings there.
  • Bitcoin is highly transparent and expensive to use as daily cash, hence not so successful as digital cash. Maybe Grin or Taproot can change this for the better.

Hope Taleb will consider Grin as a nice improvement on Bitcoin although also being highly volatile for the time being (this should decrease over time since the linear supply of Grin leads to price stability).

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Bitcoin is revolution Lite. IT did inspire a lot of garbage, but a lot of new thinking about how far this can go. So I agree with you completely. But it made a lot of people very rich, and you are attacking their bank account when you suggest any other idea. They’re defending their wealth, so in my opinion, nothing they say really matters. They’re not going to agree with you. What we have here now is a war of ideas. Everybody still thinks bitcoin is the best idea. Even though its “one magical property” has been replicated in even the dumbest ideas. So really it is a combination of emotional attachment for the transformational value it has brought the individual, and also the brand matrix that puts them in. They cannot even see other possibilities, and the are wired to despise them.

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“This BTC monocellular fellow”

I may or may not steal this.

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“Binary Form”. I think this is the problem of hoarding…

He skipped realism.