I want to address the issue of emission schedule and arguments for it on this thread. I think there’s something to add here which I haven’t seen anyone else point out. Here’s the argument:
I see arguments like Grundkurs quite often from people close to the project. It makes no sense whatsoever. Here’s why:
By rewarding late adopters, you are effectively PUNISHING EARLY ADOPTERS. Do you really want to destroy the lives of people who first supported your project? What a great way to crush any kind of early (or any) adoption of your coin. Reward them with -99.9% ROIs. Great, thanks GRIN COUNCIL!
Ok now…so YES, let’s reward those who “jump on the bandwagon”. After the coin goes to $0.01 because you’ve driven all the "early adopters’ out, let’s reward the “bandwagon” folks with a 500% ROI!! Instead of $0.01, GRIN is now $0.05. GREAT SUCCESS! Early adopters now only lose 99.5% of their investment…YIPPIE!! Lazy “Jump on the bandwagon” folks who are all late to the game, didn’t contribute CRAP will get a 500% ROI. “Fairness”, you say? Does that sound fair to you?
Imagine if you’ve seen ANY ORGANIZATION have SUCCESS this way. Most great products succeeded BECAUSE OF THE SUPPORT OF EARLY ADOPTERS! It’s precisely the dedication, energy, and efforts of the early adopters that made a lot of society-changing products become mainstream. Should they be rewarded for their efforts with a coin that appreciates in value? OF COURSE THEY SHOULD. Without them, these products might have died at their infancy. “Bandwagon” folks SHOULD NOT BE REWARDED. They take NO RISK, they put in NO EFFORT. Early adopters TAKE ALL THE RISK, put in ALL THE EFFORT, to help spread the word, to help drive adoption, to help with marketing/word of mouth/etc. Grin’s economic policy is “Socialism at its best” – put in NO work, NO effort, take NO risk but big PAYOUT! right, real “fair” there.
GRIN will never succeed or again adoption if you PUNISH EARLY ADOPTERS!!! And as Grundkurs stated plainly, that’s what the economic policy does. It PUNISHES YOU, the early adopters, and rewards the lazy, late comers who didn’t do any work or gave a crap about the project when it first started. “FAIRNESS”, right?
I think some people are angry because they have lost money, others are gloating because they knew grin would go down because of ‘high inflation’.
I think people are putting far too much weight on Grin’s price going to down because of it’s monetary policy. The reality is that in this market pretty much all alt coins are bleeding, regardless of their monetary policies- One just needs to look at the broader market. Grin’s current emission rate is comparable to Bitcoin’s in its early years, so I’m not sure what the big fuss is about.
If it makes no sense then what are you doing here? This has always been the vision of Grin, everyone has been very open about it, nothing has changed and it’s not about to change just because price is down and you’re upset about it.
How can you say Grin is punishing early adopters when mainnet has only been live for 9 months. If Grin’s price is $20 in 5 years’ time, then did Grin still punish early adopters? Seems like your whole argument is very premature.
Grin still rewards early adopters( A grin emitted today is a greater percentage of the supply than a Grin emitted tomorrow- So it could be easier now to accumulate Grin than it will be in the future). Rewards are just not as skewed in favor of early adopters like typical get rich quick coins( with halvings/ reductions). Grin is not trying to become the ‘best’ SoV( that’s Bitcoin), however, that doesn’t mean it can’t be a good SoV. Long term, Grin’s emission rate is similar to gold. Yes, this is decades in the future, however, it’s very predictable, so an efficient market will always price this in.
I’ve heard these same arguments used all too many times. “It’s similar to Gold” inflation, “In 5 years, it could be $X”, blah blah. The reality is: Early adopters are punished. Late adopters are rewarded. If you mined or bought GRIN early, you’re losing. If you bought or mined GRIN a little later, you’re losing less and if you’re mining and buying GRIN now, maybe you’ve lost just a little.
At the end of the day, everyone’s a losers. Yes, I have lost too. My mining operation is one of the earlier mainnet GRIN miners and we’ve all lost. That’s why I’m here venting. I know many others in the same boat. There are really no winners if you got involved with GRIN. Earlier you got in, the more you’ve lost.
In every other startup or any organization really, the earlier you get in, the more you are rewarded. It’s exactly the opposite with GRIN. I don’t think you can build a good project if you punish early adopters. Yes, the price is a big factor in the “punishment”. If GRIN is $20 in 5 years, I will surely eat my words. But as it is right now, I think it’s more likely to go to $0.01 than $20.
Why? Because those early adopters who saw the emission schedule and decided NOT TO GET INVOLVED with GRIN were the smart ones. They stayed away. They’re waiting for the bottom. Maybe that bottom is in 10 years. But in the meantime, those people who might have otherwise been involved with GRIN by the means of donations, mining, marketing, etc. are now on the sidelines and not really paying much attention to it. Why should they? There’s no incentive whatsoever to get involved now.
I should have done what the smart money did. STAY OUT. CONTRIBUTE NOTHING. Then, in 20 years, when the inflation rate is the same as Gold or whatever, maybe dip my toes back in and start making some money. That is, of course, assuming GRIN still even exists.
If you mined any fair launch PoW early then you were losing aswell. Monero was down -96%, 6-months after launch. I guess there were no winners there either. Even if grin had a fast emission like Monero and a large percentage of its supply had already been emitted, I bet Grin’s price wouldn’t be much different from what it is now and you would be complaining about something else rather than ‘emission schedule’. We’re in an Alt-coin bear market. Expect to see more red across the board.
I’m coming to the perspective that early adopters are always in it for the long game, no matter what the monetary policy is. The end goal is adoption or market participation over time. This is were money is made, because this is where value comes from. Right now, adoption is hindered by development, but over time, development will increase and so will adoption. If you want to see a return on your investments, then put efforts into adoption such as improving wallets, improving user experience, improving awareness of Grin/mimblewimble and the utility over other projects. I’d even go as far as improving perspective on the monetary policy. The monetary policy for the first four years for both Grin and Bitcoin are asymptotic for crying out loud. Look at how well Bitcoin performed in price for the first four years of its existence. The stigma behind Grin’s inflation rates is partly preventing it from being receptive to the market. Maybe explain to more people that Grins price should be growing from 0.01 right now, rather than falling from the hyped launch to near 0.01 to then growing from there.
Grin is completely fine in its monetary policy. It’s actually quite simple. Time is money and 1 grin = 1 second of time. If the network is moving 5 trillion dollars worth of equivalent value in a day, then do the math on how much 1 grin is worth. Right now it’s not moving that much value, so it’s price should be waaaay lower. But we have shitty market places to blame for this probably artificially pumping prices in order to suck more money out of the network from mining. Look how much volume is happening on these shit exchanges. They’re probably not even trading real grin. Grins real value is probably at less then 1¢ right now, but the marketplaces are manipulating the price perspective right now.
As for early vs late adoption. Grin actually rewards early adopters more so than late adopters. Because of high inflation, we see decreasing prices early on. This allows for more accumulation for a long-term investment. More importantly, because of low adoption and market cap there is greater potential for returns on investment. There will be a moment when inflation rate falls below growth effects which means we will see inflation have less effect on market cap and prices. At this point there is mostly upward potential for the investment. My speculation that this is actually shortly after 1 year of existence. I suspect around 1.6 years after January 15, 2019. Not investment advice btw.
Adoption is the most important aspect to the investment. Right now grin cannot be used for anything other than to sell it on an exchange, so that is what will be happening for the time being. We need more network participants accepting it as payment for goods and services. We need more applications built using grin. Mobile applications that allow users to access their local market that accepts grin for example.
Bitcoin is great, and will remain great. That is until governments start placing serious regulation on its utility. You think it’s bad right now with exchange regulation? What shall happen when governments regular miners? Imagine if miners get penalized for including transactions from addresses that aren’t apart of KYC/AML? This is a arguments for privacy coins.
Just my 20 grin (get it, cause 1 grin probably is worth .1 cent realistically right now )
"Grins real value is probably at less then 1¢ right now, but the marketplaces are manipulating the price perspective right now.
As for early vs late adoption. Grin actually rewards early adopters more so than late adopters. Because of high inflation, we see decreasing prices early on. This allows for more accumulation for a long-term investment."
LOL!!! This is classic. Grin is trading at $1 and this guy says it’s really only worth $0.001. If you mine or buy GRIN, you’re looking at a -99.99999% loss on your investment. Why on earth would anyone want anything to do with GRIN?? Early adopters are gonna be so screwed. Reward early adopters? With what? a -99.99999% loss on their investment in mining it? LOL LOL!
“Hey, I spent $10,000 in electricity costs to mine 10,000 GRIN. After a year of holding it, my $10,000 investment will be exactly $10! YIPPIE FOR THE EARLY GRIN ADOPTER/SUPPORTER! THANK YOU GRIN!!”
If your investment term is limited to a short term investment, then you are not an early adopter, but rather an early spectacular looking to gain and not support. And, you will see no gain in investing this early if your play is on the short term. For long term investors, investing now even at over bought conditions is not a problem because of the long term play. For die hard supporters, they never sell, so it’s always a profit. Right now participants are just weathering the hype storm. In the long run, $1 prices will be far behind us.
I should also add, that all that I am saying should be taken with a grain of salt. No one can predict the markets. We might be in over sold conditions. And $1 may be our floor for the time being. My words are not investment advice and I’m am not a financial advisor.
Though it is merely my opinion that we will probably see price decrease to around 10¢. Even if one were to HODL any investments that are in the red at that point, one could potentially invest more at such low prices and keep on accumulating until the slope of the price inevitably increase to a positive rate. At whoever point the later investments would greatly outperform previous investments converting losses while also recouping losses on previous investments.
UNTRUE. Many, if not most, GRIN supporters would like to profit from it short term, long term, and also contribute. Just because someone wants to profit from GRIN does not mean they are not contributing to it in some way. We may have shorter investment horizons, but we are not all leeches. Take miners for example. We have to pay our electricity bills and we’re obviously mining it for profit. Are we to be villified for wanting to make money on GRIN? We’re supporting the network by mining it. And sure, who doesn’t want to make a profit?
Things are not always so mutually exclusive as you suggest.
Your entire post is non-sensical. You cannot claim GRIN is worth $0.001 right now but also claim it rewards early adopters. As a miner, we have fixed costs like electricity, hardware and rent. Even at $1, we can’t mine profitably. So how are we suppose to survive at $0.001 per GRIN? We spend $100 in mining costs to earn $1 worth of GRIN each day? How does this reward early adopters? Miners are not made out of cash. We can’t HODL our GRIN forever…we have bills to pay.
My answer to you is that any miner participating early on should only be doing so for a long term play. If the miner has immediate expenses then they over exposed themselves in their investment. It is every investor and miners duty to evaluate before investment. Miners should not be mining expecting a price of $10 at day one when they know inflation is 100% the next day. Their rigs should be shut off if they expect to sell their coinbase for profit. Why mine at all you ask? It would have to be on a long term investment. If the term is too long and the investment price is too high, then don’t play. The problem is we see too many playing when they shouldn’t be.
LOL, again. You just made my point about punishing early adopters. Screw the early adopters. Any hobbyist or small miners who’s mining now is going to lose their shirts unless they can survive on peanuts for the next 10-20 years. Yeah, right. Basically, you’re saying NO ONE should be mining GRIN now. Unless you’re some freaking WHALE with UNLIMITED CASH and ELECTRICITY.
I thought the whole point was for the little guys to get in on the “fair” GRIN coin? Now you’re saying it’s only for whale miners that have unlimited resources. PICK ONE!
The only ones that should be mining grin right now are those willing to hold for a long term. Do you not agree? Can you not calculate the inflation rate right now? It’s over 100% annually (130% IIRC). Anyone looking to invest or mine in this stage right now, should be in a long term play because of over bought conditions from day 1.
Bitcoin didn’t have an exchange or price for the first year of its life (a year and a half roughly). It was supported by developers, hobbyist and early supporters. They didn’t have the high costs to do so because there was no market manipulation. Bitcoin did not begin at $15 prices. It began effectively $0.
I pick the the former. If whale miners and investors chose to invest in over bought conditions for a long term play in order to drive out the market, then all the more power to them. They won’t see returns on their investments until the long term has played out, by then they’ll either run out of money, or real market price will catch up to the inflated price by which time opportunity arises for other investors. In which case, the whales would have been just as well off purchasing smaller amounts for lower prices early on.
I think the fairness aspect of grin is not about it being fairer for all early participants only, but equally fair for all participants across the lifespan of its existence.
Your right it’s not fair for someone to lose money in the short term in the early stages. But the only reason why there is this potential for loss is because of the over bought conditions. Price was too high at $15 dollars within the first month, with 100% inflation not annually but less than monthly. Those that bought or mined should have been asking themselves whether growth could support such a price before participating.
Now we are at 100% inflation in less then a year (grins 100% inflation will always be the number of days out from the present as the number of days from its launch). With that inflation rate, do we observe or speculate that growth effects will sustain current prices? Do we see grin growing at $1 every second? I’d hardly think so when we have user experience problems and development work to do.
I’m sorry for your loss in this game. You’re not the only one who has. I’m not here to spread FUD, but instead to share my perspective. It may be the case that we are simply suffering in a short altcoin circle that will correct itself in a few months time and price will never reach pennies. However, it is on us all to make our own decisions and speculate for our own means. For me, my play is to wait for much lower prices I think grin is still over priced. If grin gets to 1¢, I’d be happy invest greatly. The more it drops, the less likely it is to drop more.
It is incorrect to compare Grin and Monero at an early stage of emission for two reasons: 1. Monero long-term inflation was 10 times lower than Grin’s. Main reason. 2. The market was not so competitive.
@ken19983 why the heck did you mine something you completely knew the inflation rate of ahead of time? why are you blaming anyone else for your actions? Very embarassing.
grin is supposed to be experimental small, tested, attacked, broken, fixed, etc. We dont need miners wasting 10,000$ of electricity on it. that’s totally up to you and frankly really bad idea. you should have been smarter.
It’s incredible to see the amount of ignorance coming from people who claim to know so much.
No, I am not blaming anyone. If you read my posts, you will see I have not so stop putting words in my mouth.
Second, my point is that Grin punishes early adopters. I stand by my position. It does absolutely hurt early adopters. Many others on both sides of the equation have agreed.
Third, why on earth are you on this board attacking a legitimate question. Mining is risky no matter what coin you mine. Grin is no exception. My mining operation was well aware of the risks when we decided to mine Grin. My point is that the inflation policy punishes early adopters and that is why if Grin hopes to get any kind of adoption, then stop punishing early adopters.
If you want to make an argument for how high inflation helps early adoption, I am all ears.
Not attacking your question, but your premise is flawed.
“early adopters” do not benefit most of the time. The first cell phone users spent $1,000s of iollars on stupendously shitty phones… every single year you could buy cheaper, better devices. Same for cars, computers, airplanes, houses, shoes… Things generally get better and cheaper and the only people who adopt early NEED the functionality regardless of price, or are total nerds, hobbyists, fanatics, very far from mainstream.
So you use grin now because you are a nerd/hobbyist or you REALLY need the functionality of digital cash.
Or you are a speculator who thinks other people are going to buy the hype more than you and you can profit off their irrationality. You are lucky you only lost $10,000.
Nobody buys and hoards USD… that is ignorant. Grin is rarer than usd long term though. Hoarding gold is a loonnng game, it goes up very slowly.
the tech helps adoption. Inflation is m going to help ALL adoption… not just early adopters.
Yes, those poor early adopters of Bitcoin were ONLY rewarded with 1000000% returns on their investments. Same with AMZN, FB, GOOG and any success story. When did you ever hear of the guy who bought AMZN in 2019 getting 1000000% returns on their investment? No, you don’t do you? Your point is completely illogical. Early adopters take risks, they deserve the reward. The people who sunk their life savings helping fund Microsoft’s growth in the 80s absolutely deserve to be gazillionaires today. That’s capitalism folks. Unless, of course, you’re a socialist…
I’ve heard so many people who attack my opinion on adoption with different versions of this argument. It’s completely illogical and flawed. Inflation does not help bring in new people into the project. It drives them away. I will admit. My mining organization made a bad bet on mining GRIN. We should never have mined it. We overlooked the impact of high inflation and as a result, we suffered, like many other miners have. Inflation does NOT help adoption. It does NOT incentivize mining, investment or holding the coin in any way. It does the opposite. It drives everyone away…“RUN FOR THE HILLS” as they would say. Wait 10 years, then maybe when GRIN is worth $0.001 as someone else suggested, buy a few. Be the guy who bought/mined GRIN at $0.001 10 years from now and not the guy who bought/mined GRIN at $1.00 today, HODL for 10 years, and end up at $0.001 …99.9% loss on your investment.
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