OK so on a macro level, $28.5m invested to collect $33m is a 14% ROI on the investment, before taxes. In the USA at least, whatever is mined will be subject to taxes and that’ll reduce the effective ROI from 14% to about 10%. (Note: taxes would not apply if the initial buy of $10k was to purchase 3,610 Grin at today’s prices, I’d have 3,610 Grin at the end of period, but taxes need to be calculated for mining). (Edit: see below)**
One additional point is that the assumption of $28.5 million to collect $33 million assumes only the investment from Obelisk ($28.5 million). If any other players enter the field, then the miners’ investment already exceeds any potential return. In game theory, these numbers assume a one-player game.
**Correction: in the U.S. taxes must be paid on all mining proceeds at fair mkt value. Numbers above (e.g., reducing profit from 14% to 10%) were based only on assumption that taxes paid on the profit, but it’s on the whole mining effort. Accordingly, using the numbers described, and even assuming a one-player, if taxes are considered, there is a negative ROI anticipated for US-based miners when compared to making a direct $10k purchase of Grin now instead of the GRN1.