Obelisk GRN1 Full Sale

If you take actual PRICE into consideration:

Price NOW(04/11/2019): 2.96$
Return NOW: 123.589*2.96 = 365.82$ / Day
ROI NOW: 10000÷365,82 = 27.34 Days

Price THEN: ? (will use Price NOW)
Return THEN: 6.54076674×2.96 = 19.36$ / Day
ROI THEN: 10000÷19.36 = 516.53 Days

*Again This calculation DOES NOT account for Price THEN!
(the crystal ball i ordered from Amazon didn’t arrive yet!)

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Checks out for me; used whattomine.com calculator for Grin C31, and the hashrate increase would be a multiple of current hashrate of 21. If that equates to a increase of difficulty by a factor of 21 (that’s how that works right?), then yes, a GRN1 will be putting out ~6.30 grin a day.

21x difficulty would be “347,007,193.281“

https://whattomine.com/coins/299-grin-cuckatoo31?utf8=✓&hr=420.0&d_enabled=true&d=347%2C007%2C193.281&p=2200.0&fee=0.0&cost=0.1&hcost=0.0&commit=Calculate

Edit: To put that in some perspective, in order to equal the daily profit we are seeing with these numbers today, then no other products can come to market to increase total hashrate/difficulty, and Grin would have to be at about just under $60 per Grin.

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A little more diving in on the hypotheticals:

Let’s say your target ROI is ~6 months on a $10k GRN1.

Let’s also say Innosilicon and Bitmain release miners in about the same timeframe, and the difficulty is 2x what the hashrate will be with 2500 GRN1s on the market plus today’s current difficulty. That number could be within a huge range, but let’s keep it simple and hopefully this is more towards the “worst case scenario”.

So difficulty at “694,014,386.562”, and producing about ~3.15 Grin per day. To ROI in a ~6 month timeframe Grin would need to be priced at ~$17.70 and electric at $0.1 kw/h with all other numbers staying stable.

Now, what’s the phase out schedule of C31? I read that it’s around 7 months? Is that starting in October when these are due to deliver? And doesn’t C32 phase in proportionally during the entire C31 phase, meaning the last couple months will be 80-90% less or so?

Seems like >$20 Grin will be the price necessary for these to have “reasonable” ROI.

Hopefully the $1.25 million donated to Grin Dev if all of these sell will help get it there. :smile:

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That’s really great :+1:

So basically, the reward of GRN-1 Mini would be about 1,1 Grin per day (and not even counting all other ASICs ) That´s not worth at all. I´ll better buy Grin, when it sinks more.

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Ok so I found the post with more info on recent phase out estimates:

C31 estimated to start phase out Jan 2020 and completely phase out Aug 2020, so October deliveries of GRN1 would have a decent amount of time to mine. The discount on GRN2 upgrades are a nice touch to phase in with C32 as well. It was mentioned by SiaBillionaire on the Obelisk Discord that the intention would be just a hashboard upgrade for GRN1 owners. They also intend to be able to reuse the newly designed chassis of the GRN1 for other ASICs they may produce in the future. Similar to how their DCR1 could be flashed and use SC1 hashboards.

C31 profitability is completely independent from C29 hashrate.

There is no phase-in. All of C31-C64 are fully rewarded from launch.

Ah, thank you, I think I’m confusing “phase in” with how Cuckatoo gets 10% of rewards at launch, linearly increasing to 100% in 2 years. This applies to all of C31, C32, etc?

Is the ability to mine C32 and higher limited by pools supporting C32 and higher, given that you have hardware that can mine C32 efficiently? So if Innosilicon releases their miner and it can do C32, it would need to stick with C31 until pools supported C32?

Yes, primary PoW rewards ramp up over the first two years from 10% to 100%.
The relative scaling between C31, C32, … C64 is fixed apart from phase-outs.

If pools do not support some CuckatooN, then one is limited to solo mining it.
Support for C32 will likely be added before phaseout of C31 starts early next year.

Will it not be tied to a factor of 1000:1 ?
(I think I saw something about that somewhere…)

1000:1 is the rule of thrumb of how much speed and energy usage I give for solving a problem on a less complex platform; it wouldn’t relate to the designed rewards

ok, i didn’t pay much attention to it, but i was stuck with that idea…

Considering ROI on these units is complicated because of the phase-out and phase-in - AF rewards are ramping up as CC31 rewards are backing off.

Depending on when CC32 miners become competitive to the GRN1, the GRN1 will be able to mine until anywhere from April (at which point the GRN1 potency is halved) to August (at which point the GRN1 potency is less than 1/10th).

The total block rewards for CC31 will be somewhere between 10 million and 12 million Grins assuming that the machines arrive in October and go obsolete between April and August. 12 million grins at the current price is about $33 million. 2500 miners is about $25 million, which means that - assuming the price stays constant - $25 million of miners are being produced to capture a total potential of around $33 million in block rewards.

This is of course a set of projections that make assumptions which may or may not pan out, and not anything that Obelisk is willing to guarantee. The most that we are willing to guarantee is that we will not manufacture more than 2500 GRN1 units (where GRN1-Mini’s count as 1/6th, voucher conversions count as 1, and GRN1-Immersions count as 2).

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What do these numbers do if we include electricity?

The numbers don’t move a whole lot. That’s one of the advantages of Cuckatoo31, the capital costs are proportionally significantly higher relative to other mining algorithms.

A reasonable price to host a 2200w unit at a colocation facility is $150/mo. So if we count of the cost of hosting 2500 units at that price for 9 months (approximately the useful life of the miner), the total cost rises from $25 million to $28.5 million to collect $33 million.

Again, those numbers are numbers that Obelisk feels are reasonable, but in no way guarantees, and a purchaser should do their own research before making a decision.

How can you conclude that the “numbers don’t move a whole lot”? The electricity/colocation costs you estimated at $3.5 million mean the previous gross margin you calculated as $33 m - $25 m = $8 m has just shrunk to $4.5 m! That’s a ~ 44% erosion of your previous estimate!

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Isn’t the biggest risk the ability of the producer to build and deliver the rig on spec and, especially, ON TIME? A 30-day delay in the delivery of GRN1s kills ALL margin in that model. Yet your company has never yet delivered any batch of any product on time — several months delays. You say that you fixed the problems in production but you don’t have any track record of delivering on time.

By contrast, I was shocked at how you told this user that they just need to wait and take their lumps. Is your contract the same for GRN1 miners? Are you requiring customers to agree to allow any delivery date and any change in specs? From that case that’s been cited:

[Min 15:21, Cooley Atty Welsh] “Now, when it comes to Kickstarters, generally, they don’t meet the deadlines. In fact, I provide for evidence a CNN article from 2012 which references that at that point 85% of Kickstarters will not meet their estimated target date. That is a common process.”

Is Obelisk making any changes to its contract to obligate it to deliver the product on time? Or, as before, are you shifting this risk entirely to the buyers?

OK so on a macro level, $28.5m invested to collect $33m is a 14% ROI on the investment, before taxes. In the USA at least, whatever is mined will be subject to taxes and that’ll reduce the effective ROI from 14% to about 10%. (Note: taxes would not apply if the initial buy of $10k was to purchase 3,610 Grin at today’s prices, I’d have 3,610 Grin at the end of period, but taxes need to be calculated for mining). (Edit: see below)**

One additional point is that the assumption of $28.5 million to collect $33 million assumes only the investment from Obelisk ($28.5 million). If any other players enter the field, then the miners’ investment already exceeds any potential return. In game theory, these numbers assume a one-player game.

**Correction: in the U.S. taxes must be paid on all mining proceeds at fair mkt value. Numbers above (e.g., reducing profit from 14% to 10%) were based only on assumption that taxes paid on the profit, but it’s on the whole mining effort. Accordingly, using the numbers described, and even assuming a one-player, if taxes are considered, there is a negative ROI anticipated for US-based miners when compared to making a direct $10k purchase of Grin now instead of the GRN1.

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To be fair, one can depreciate the costs of mining equipment; I assume the IRS would allow 3-year depreciation, but I’m not sure they would allow 9-month depreciation. (I believe that was the anticipated lifetime for the HW.) IANAL, so apologies if any mistakes.