# A fun grin price prediction **URL:** \ **Category:** Market\ **Created:** [January 17, 2024, 2:15pm UTC](https://forum.grin.mw/t/a-fun-grin-price-prediction/10903 "2024-01-17T14:15:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 4
**Author:** ![Anynomous](https://yyz2.discourse-cdn.com/flex036/user_avatar/forum.grin.mw/anynomous/32/2928_2.png) [@Anynomous](https://forum.grin.mw/u/Anynomous)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2024, 8:40am UTC](https://forum.grin.mw/t/a-fun-grin-price-prediction/10903/4 "2024-01-18T08:40:05Z")
What I always find surprising is that most people ignore growth in demand (adoption) when considering the relative supply. As long as growth exceeds the relative supply, one would expect a stable or upwards price trend: > [@Fun statistics on user growth as indicator for demand](https://forum.grin.mw/t/fun-statistics-on-user-growth-as-indicator-for-demand/10304): > > In this post I want to do some fun, on the top of my head “statistics” on the supply and demand for Grin. Do not put to much value on this analysis, but perhaps it can be informative. We are currently just past Grins 4th birthday birthday We have around 25% inflation or a stock to flow of 4. Ignoring the influence of external factors like the Bitcoin price, stock market, general market sentiment etc., one would expect that for the price to reach the/a bottom you need a balance between demand… It is a bit similar with those saying “O no, Grin has an infinite supply” yet they completely ignore the loss rate which, although not that important right now, will become a limiting factor ones the total supply increases. The amount of available Grin will fix itself ones: _lossRate \* totallSupplly = supplyRate_ When talking about price you would expect price to stabilize or go up when: _(lossRate +userGrowth)_ totallSupplly = supplyRate\* Where loss rate and user growth would be expressed as a fraction, e.g. 0.02 loss rate (2%), 0.20 use growth (20%). The loss rate is not much compared to the relative supply/inflation right now of 20%, but the growth more or less equals the relative supply of 20%, which would mean there is not real inflation due to the supply. I estimate we are already at a point in time when growth in users compensates for the current relative supply.We will probably be influenced though by the rest of the market, namely BTC price, since interest in crypto including Grin (new adoption) gets boosted during bull-runs, but get suppressed during bear markets. --- _[View the full topic](https://forum.grin.mw/t/a-fun-grin-price-prediction/10903)._